3 Signs Suggest Post Debate Momentum Has Turned Against Bush

Published on October 14, 2004 By blogic In Politics

Three factors are decidedly pro-Kerry (I guess this is also a guide to my "expert" methodology for figuring out these things):

(1) Since the debate, Kerry futures have strengthened at the online political futures markets. You can take a look at TradeSports, NewsFutures, and the Iowa Electronic Markets.

(2) At Memigo -- a site where stories are ranked by reader interest -- stories that are critical of Bush and supportive of Kerry are drifting toward the top.

(3) The polls (scientific, not online) done after the debates show that Kerry did much better than Bush at impressing undecided/independent voters, and Kerry also did better among voters in general.

Anyway, these three factors are just measures of short term momentum. We'll see what people are saying in three days.

Comments

T_Bone4Justice

on Oct 14, 2004

Yeap, like I said earlier...it's way too early to make heads or tails out of any of this stuff.

blogic

on Oct 14, 2004

Agreed.

That said, I've been arguing since before the debates that unless Bush can make Kerry the focus of the elections, Bush is in trouble. Kerry could have lost all the debates, and still been in a stronger strategic position as long as the issue was Bush's presidency, not Kerry's character.

Of course, Kerry hasn't lost all the debates, is in a stronger position for it, and I think it'll be hard for Bush to make Kerry the pivotal story. Polling shows that Bush's approval numbers are very weak for an incumbent, and the right track/wrong track numbers are getting worse for him. More ominously for Bush, both measures are heading south.

Patriot_Flamethrower

on Oct 14, 2004

Geez blogic...........you really need to put down the New York Times Manifesto, switch off Dan Rather, CNN and the other alphabet networks, and try to conjure up an INDEPENDENT THOUGHT.

I have read your blatantly partisan nonsense for awhile now. It gets more ridiculous every day.

The debate polls are WORTHLESS because YOUR Democrat Party flooded the networks with phone calls and e-mails before, during and after all 4 debates to cast their"votes" for Kerry and Edwards. The polls are inherently FLAWED because of that.

I don't expect YOU to believe that. You have your head so far up John Kerry's ass that every time Kerry opens his mouth, you gasp for air.

rugbyshawn

on Oct 14, 2004

The debate polls are WORTHLESS because YOUR Democrat Party flooded the networks with phone calls and e-mails before, during and after all 4 debates to cast their"votes" for Kerry and Edwards. The polls are inherently FLAWED because of that.

You don't call the polling companies (like Gallup), they call you. For example, after the second debte Gallup's snap poll was within the MoE. However the follow up poll two days later showed that Kerry was considered the winner of the debate by a 15pt margin. The snap poll is generally less normalized since Gallup and other pollsters are trying to get an instant perception of the debate. However, more work is put into normalizing the results of the latter poll based on the voting population (either by likely or registered voters among other things).

The online click-polls are specifically stated as non-scientific and can be taken with a grain of salt (or a pint of beer!).

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