Final Attacks: Bush and Kerry Need to Bring Out the Big Guns

Published on October 18, 2004 By blogic In Politics

With only two weeks left before the election, both campaigns seem to be drifting. Bush is slightly up in national polls, but Kerry appears to be slighly ahead in the swing states, and hence the electoral vote count. The last two days haven't been dominated by any single issue, and the first candidate to craft an attack with teeth will be in a stronger position next week.

The Bush campaign has been hammering on the Mary Cheney story, but I think that's probably a mistake on their part. They've tried to connect it to the "Senator Kerry will say anything to get elected", but in a way, I think they've spun in wrong. Independent voters don't think -- and aren't worried -- that Kerry is mean, or a "bad man" as Lynne Cheney puts it; independent voters are worried that Kerry is wishy washy or inconsistent. I think the Republicans would have better to stay on that theme. Of course, both campaign have the problem that they have to get their bases worked up, but partisan voters care about different issues than undecided ones. Partisan Republicans are convinced that Kerry will smear people to get ahead -- for the record, I think it's revealing that so many Bush supporters think identifying openly gay politically active Mary Cheney as gay is a smear -- why partisan Democrats think Bush is a continual liar who never takes responsibility. Undecideds, though, neither think Kerry is mean, nor that Bush is dishonest. As I said, the undecided think that Kerry is wishy washy, and they think Bush is overly stubborn.

The Bush campaign seems to be staying on the Kerry-as-mean theme, with Bush complaining today of Kerry's scare tactics. Maybe they'll be able to frame Kerry this way, but they've only got two weeks, and they'd already succeeded in getting people to think Kerry flip-flips, so why change campaign theme horses? Maybe their internal polling showed that after the debates, viewers were less likely to see Kerry as inconsistent, but more likely to see him as abrasive.

At least the Mary Cheney strategy had more legs -- it was high on Yahoo News for one day, not much, but better than any other Bush attack during the debates -- than the old Kerry-is-a-liberal attack. That went no where. A quick look at the news shows me Bush is back to the Kerry would be weak on terrorism. Personally, I think Bush needs to focus on Kerry as a waffler. That's the one attack that's done really well. As a comment on campaign attack consistency, notice that the Mary Cheney Kerry-is-ruthless attacks contradicts the Kerry-is-weak theme. It's not good to have contradictory attacks going on at the same time.

Kerry seems to have focused on three separate issues. As he's been doing for a couple of weeks, he's talking about a possible draft. It turns out that young men are very responsive on that issue, and people are already primed to be unsure that Bush is always aware of what the future will be like, in military planning. Kerry has been hitting the issue of social security, which is huge in Florida but probably not as great an issue elsewhere, since younger voters favor partial privatization as much as older voters don't. Finally, Kerry's been talking about the sudden lack of half our flu vaccine. That issue really came out of no where and has some potential, depending on how well Kerry can link it to other attack themes against Bush. I can see Kerry emphasizing poor planning, outsourcing, and privatization -- and maybe Bush not caring about ordinary folk -- but we'll see. I think the flu issue is a surprising one -- it never occurred to me that this would happen -- and it puts Bush in a poor light, but it would require message discipline, something at which Kerry's not always that good.

Comments

Daiwa

on Oct 18, 2004

Finally, Kerry's been talking about the sudden lack of half our flu vaccine. That issue really came out of no where and has some potential, depending on how well Kerry can link it to other attack themes against Bush. I can see Kerry emphasizing poor planning, outsourcing, and privatization -- and maybe Bush not caring about ordinary folk -- but we'll see. I think the flu issue is a surprising one -- it never occurred to me that this would happen -- and it puts Bush in a poor light, but it would require message discipline, something at which Kerry's not always that good.

The whole draft-mongering thing is horrific enough, but this one just baffles me. How can any sane person buy into the notion that the flu vaccine shortage is Bush's fault? In fact, I don't think any sane person will, and almost all the electorate is sane. We're talking about a manufacturing problem in a British manufacturing plant. Trying to hang this around Bush's neck is so transparently silly. And all this "everything in the world that is bad or less good than we want is Bush's fault" mantra is falling flat on its face, if you ask me.

I'll have to admit, however, that this is a more reasoned article than I've been accustomed to seeing from you, blogic. Props for that.

Cheers,
Daiwa

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