Expert Info for Ordinary Folk: Electoral College Forecasting

Tools for Following the Election

Published on September 9, 2004 By blogic In Politics

Electoral College:

Bush 213 Kerry 175

As part of the Bush Convention bounce, Michigan and New Jersey have moved to the Toss-Up column in our Electoral College projections. Both states had been leaning in Kerry's direction. The first Rasmussen Reports state polling data released after the Republican Convention showed Minnesota remaining firmly in the Toss-Up column.

President Bush now leads in states with 213 Electoral Votes while Senator Kerry leads in states with 175. Neither man, however, can yet count on the 270 Electoral Votes needed for victory in November. States where the candidates are within five percentage points of each other are considered Toss-Ups.

Rasmussen is one of the best at poll analysis. He correctly predicted the size of the Bush convention bounce, days before recent polls showed that Time and Newsweek had signifcantly overestimated it.

As with any electoral college analysis of this sort, this site only predicts who would win were the election held today.

Comments

Gideon MacLeish

on Sep 09, 2004

Very interesting. I commend them for including the data on Michael Badnarik (the 3% in Nevada is consistent with our numbers), a notable exclusion (and an erroneous one, in my opinion) in most polling data. I really don't see Nevada going to the Republicans, though, because of Yucca Mountain, and think it's possible Badnarik's numbers in the state may be higher.

I'll be interested in seeing the New Hampshire results as well, knowing that they factor in Badnarik.

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