blogic: Debate Result II -- Kerry Appears Presidential

Published on October 1, 2004 By blogic In Politics

In some of the media coverage, I think there's been too much coverage of Bush's scowls and eye rolling. Frankly it irritated me in 2000 when people thought the most important issue facing America was Al Gore's sighs, and I don't think Kerry should become president just because George Bush appeared off-balance.

John Kerry accomplished his most important goal: coming off such that ordinary Americans can imagine him as our president.

When a sitting president runs for re-election, the election is about him. Studies of presidential voting have repeatedly shown that these races are far more determined by how people see the incumbent than by their view of the challenger. On the other hand, the challenger does have to satisfy the minimal condition he is perceived as a potential president.

In other words, when a president is running for re-election, there's a two stage process:

1. Is it possible to imagine the challenger as the president? (e.g., Watermelon Smasher Gallagher would fail this stage -- yes, Gallagher is running)
2. Is the president doing a good job?

The Bush campaign has focused on making Kerry look incapable of being president. Character attacks were one way of trying to convince Americans that Kerry simply isn't presidential, and that he shouldn't even be considered as a legitimate alternative to Bush.

By performing capably in the first debate, Kerry has made it much harder for Bush to keep Americans from moving to stage two of their decision making process.

Stage two focuses on how good a job the president is doing, and whether people feel comfortable about the direction of the country. Because Kerry did fine in the debate, the election will now be nearly completely about Bush, not about Kerry, barring some devasting mistake on Kerry's part, or new damaging information about him (e.g., Kerry killed Kennedy! Suddenly, it all makes so much sense...). The polling numbers on the country's direction -- while not devasting -- are weak for an incumbent, and are making this a much harder campaign for Bush. Bush needs to convince America that he's done a good job. That will be a challenge with the sluggish economy and the ongoing reports of chaos in Iraq.

Because of Kerry's debate performance, Bush can only win by proving that he's been a good president, not by saying Kerry would be a bad one.

Bush's ability to win this race by painting Kerry as unpresidential disappeared last night -- that leaves Kerry in a much stronger position than he was in twenty four hours ago.

Comments

Myrrander

on Oct 01, 2004

Kerry proved himself calmer under fire, Bush looked peeved and flustered without a handler to hold his hand.

Deference

on Oct 01, 2004

Bush smelled like a turd on fire. We elected this guy?

..wait....no..we didn't!

drmiler

on Oct 01, 2004

Reply #2 By: Deference - 10/1/2004 10:53:25 AM
Bush smelled like a turd on fire. We elected this guy?

..wait....no..we didn't!

I think they're right, you ARE delusional!

Deference

on Oct 01, 2004

This country is being run in to the ground.
I voted Bush last election drmiler, don't you think we at least deserve a change?

P.S. : Next time, get original put-down, it helps strengthen the sorely lacking "sting".

drmiler

on Oct 01, 2004

Reply #4 By: Deference - 10/1/2004 12:49:54 PM
This country is being run in to the ground.
I voted Bush last election drmiler, don't you think we at least deserve a change?

P.S. : Next time, get original put-down, it helps strengthen the sorely lacking "sting".

Maybe we do deserve a change, but by "God" Kerry ain't it!

Silver_and_Jade_Tears

on Oct 01, 2004

Maybe we do deserve a change, but by "God" Kerry ain't it!

Since you seem to know everything, who do you suggest?

stevendedalus

on Oct 01, 2004

Crucial, no doubt

John Kerry accomplished his most important goal: coming off such that ordinary Americans can imagine him as our president.

Maybe we do deserve a change, but by "God" Kerry ain't it!

Who then--Nader?--give us a break.

We elected this guy?

..wait....no..we didn't!

Love it!!

drmiler

on Oct 01, 2004

Reply #6 By: Silver_and_Jade_Tears - 10/1/2004 12:58:19 PM
Maybe we do deserve a change, but by "God" Kerry ain't it!

Since you seem to know everything, who do you suggest?

You aren't going to like what I say. First off the key phrase being "maybe we do". But given that we only have 2 *real* choices.....I'll take *Bush* anyday.

Daiwa

on Oct 02, 2004

Funny - the most important thing to accomplish in the debate was to "look" presidential. Never mind he was an empty suit with a good tan. At least his supporters are openly admitting there is no substance there, that his only hope was to "look good."

What an insult. Makes you better understand the significance of the phrase "appearances can be deceiving."

Cheers,
Daiwa

drmiler

on Oct 02, 2004

Reply #9 By: Daiwa - 10/2/2004 12:25:37 AM
Funny - the most important thing to accomplish in the debate was to "look" presidential. Never mind he was an empty suit with a good tan

Yeah but the tan wasn't real. It was a spray job.

on Oct 02, 2004

Sure, I want John Kerry to be a president.

It's sad that some people will vote on basis of appearances. I guess that's why the debate rules included no side to side comparisons. Some news did break that rule, however.

John Kerry does appear to be more "presidential" than Bush ever was.

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