Halfway Mark: My Guess on Who Will Win the Debate

Published on October 13, 2004 By blogic In Politics

Bush looks less angry, and more comfortable than in the last debate. Worlds better than he did in the first.

The initial take will probably be that it's a draw. My guess is that overnight polls will show that. Both Democrats and Republicans will think their candidate won, and the number of undecideds has been decreasing for at least a couple of weeks.

Conservatives are going to love Bush's performance, and it may boost their turnout. They may have been demoralized, and Bush's strong performance will help.

Aggressive attacking doesn't go over well with independents, especially women but also men (among independents). I think Kerry will probably fare better than Bush among that group.

I'm not sure yet how people will see the debate a week from now. Bush's false statement that he never said he wasn't worried about bin Laden is going to shoot up to the top tier of Yahoo's most popular stories, and the like. On the other hand, Bush's strong performance will also be a big story.

As always, my take on things is that as long as people see Kerry has good enough to be a credible consideration as president, they'll focus on Bush, since he's the incumbent. That's how previous elections have always worked. Bush really needs to make people scared of Kerry -- and while Bush looks good -- he's not accomplishing that.

Comments

Myrrander

on Oct 13, 2004

I like Kerry, but damn Bush is strong.

drmiler

on Oct 13, 2004

Halfway Mark: My Guess on Who Will Win the Debate

By: blogic
Posted: Wednesday, October 13, 2004 on The Tide Goes Out
Message Board: Politics

I'm not sure yet how people will see the debate a week from now. Bush's false statement that he never said he wasn't worried about bin Laden is going to shoot up to the top tier of Yahoo's most popular stories,

Just about as well as Kerry's careless remark about the VP's daughter.

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