I'm always surprised at how many people use free market theory to argue against taxing the rich more than the poor. These taxation haters scoff at economists who argue that since the wealthy benefit most from civil society, the wealthy should contribute the most to the body that maintains the infrastructure of civil society: the government. The idea that the wealthy don't owe a debt to the government, and the poor, for their wealth is a modern one. I find the modern conservati...

With only two weeks left before the election, both campaigns seem to be drifting. Bush is slightly up in national polls, but Kerry appears to be slighly ahead in the swing states, and hence the electoral vote count. The last two days haven't been dominated by any single issue, and the first candidate to craft an attack with teeth will be in a stronger position next week. The Bush campaign has been hammering on the Mary Cheney story, but I think that's probably a mistake on their pa...

From the Associated Press : BAGHDAD, Iraq - The U.S. Army Reserve soldiers who refused orders to drive a dangerous route were members of one of a few supply units whose trucks are still unarmored, their commanding general said Sunday. The soldiers, now under investigation, had previously focused on local missions in safer parts of southern Iraq and had never driven a convoy north along the attack-prone roads passing through Baghdad. "Not all of their trucks are completely armored. In ...

We're off to Allentown, PA. We're going to spend the day trying to boost turnout in some of the city's less lively quarters. We're going to need every vote we can get this year in Pennsylvania, and that means we've got to break the Republican's unfair manipulation of their "living" majority. I know some of the Bush supporters will try to spin this. They'll claim that it's too late to register voters in Pennsylvania. They'll mislead you by asking if you really want to be in a pa...

I'm sympathetic to the neo-conservative vision. It's a liberal idea -- something that could have been suggested by the Left of the pre-Vietnam War era. The neo conservative vision is sweeping: Democracy spread around the globe, civil liberties established in every nation, decisions made by presidents and parliaments. There would be no more pariah states, embargoes would end, and trade ships would connect the cities of the world. I'm attracted to that vision -- even if I'm not s...

From the LA Times : BAGHDAD — Two suicide bombers detonated explosives-laden backpacks Thursday inside the heavily barricaded Green Zone, killing at least six civilians — including four Americans — in the first suicide attacks within the area that houses the offices of the interim Iraqi government and the U.S. and British embassies. [snip] The suicide bombings were the most deadly attacks inside the U.S.-controlled Green Zone, a 4-square-mile compound surrounded by blast walls, concert...

A moment where we learned something troubling about Bush : Sen. John F. Kerry caught President Bush off guard during their final debate Wednesday night, asserting that the president once said he was "not that concerned" about hunting down Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In one of the testiest moments of the evening, Bush protested, "I don't think I ever said I'm not worried about Osama bin Laden. That's kind of one of those exaggerations." But during a news conference at the White H...

I do a lot of my thinking while jogging in the morning -- up 1st Ave to East 59th St, west to Columbus Circle, and down Broadway to Union Square -- which has the strange result that a lot of my thinking is linked to the music to which I'm listening. Part of my current rotation is Rocky's "Going the Distance", which plays during the climatic fight seat at the end of the movie. As any fan of the movie knows, Rocky isn't focused on actually winning the fight -- his self doubt keeps him fro...

Three factors are decidedly pro-Kerry (I guess this is also a guide to my "expert" methodology for figuring out these things): (1) Since the debate, Kerry futures have strengthened at the online political futures markets. You can take a look at TradeSports , NewsFutures , and the Iowa Electronic Markets . (2) At Memigo -- a site where stories are ranked by reader interest -- stories that are critical of Bush and supportive of Kerry are drifting toward the top. (3) The polls (sc...

Those are absolute numbers, not percentages. Only 24 people. Not much to say about this. Obviously, the sample size is low, so take it for what it's worth.

Score this as a draw, but notice that Independents favored Kerry : The ABC poll of 566 voters found 42 percent picked Kerry as the winner, 41 percent chose Bush and 14 percent said they tied. Who Won (sorry about the crappy formating -- just keep track of the columns) Kerry, Bush, Tie Among Democrats 81%, 5, 11 Among Republicans 12%, 73, 11 Among Independents ...

Here's the description After another volley of rhetoric and statistics from both sides of the stage, Sen. John Kerry walked away as the clear winner of the final debate according to a flash poll conducted immediately after closing statements by the candidates. According to the Gallup organization as reported by CNN, Kerry won the debate with 52% while only 39% felt that George Bush had the better night. Still searching for more results...

Here are early poll results : A CBS News poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate named Kerry the winner by 39-25 percent over Mr. Bush, with 36 percent calling it a tie. Fifty-nine percent said Kerry has clear positions on the issues. Before the third debate, only 29 percent of the same voters said Kerry had clear positions. I'll keep looking for other data.

That's not good for Kerry. We'll see if that become a story.

There are two ways to talk about who won the debate: One is to talk about how you would have scored the debate were you a judge. The second is to talk about how viewers and -- once the spin gets going -- non-viewer voters see the debate. I'm always more interested in how the debates will be interpreted by the viewers and other voters. Personally, I've thought every debate other than the first was a draw. That's a copout, I know, but I think the candidates have performed well except for...