From the LA Times : BAGHDAD — Two suicide bombers detonated explosives-laden backpacks Thursday inside the heavily barricaded Green Zone, killing at least six civilians — including four Americans — in the first suicide attacks within the area that houses the offices of the interim Iraqi government and the U.S. and British embassies. [snip] The suicide bombings were the most deadly attacks inside the U.S.-controlled Green Zone, a 4-square-mile compound surrounded by blast walls, concert...

A moment where we learned something troubling about Bush : Sen. John F. Kerry caught President Bush off guard during their final debate Wednesday night, asserting that the president once said he was "not that concerned" about hunting down Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In one of the testiest moments of the evening, Bush protested, "I don't think I ever said I'm not worried about Osama bin Laden. That's kind of one of those exaggerations." But during a news conference at the White H...

I do a lot of my thinking while jogging in the morning -- up 1st Ave to East 59th St, west to Columbus Circle, and down Broadway to Union Square -- which has the strange result that a lot of my thinking is linked to the music to which I'm listening. Part of my current rotation is Rocky's "Going the Distance", which plays during the climatic fight seat at the end of the movie. As any fan of the movie knows, Rocky isn't focused on actually winning the fight -- his self doubt keeps him fro...

Three factors are decidedly pro-Kerry (I guess this is also a guide to my "expert" methodology for figuring out these things): (1) Since the debate, Kerry futures have strengthened at the online political futures markets. You can take a look at TradeSports , NewsFutures , and the Iowa Electronic Markets . (2) At Memigo -- a site where stories are ranked by reader interest -- stories that are critical of Bush and supportive of Kerry are drifting toward the top. (3) The polls (sc...

Those are absolute numbers, not percentages. Only 24 people. Not much to say about this. Obviously, the sample size is low, so take it for what it's worth.

Score this as a draw, but notice that Independents favored Kerry : The ABC poll of 566 voters found 42 percent picked Kerry as the winner, 41 percent chose Bush and 14 percent said they tied. Who Won (sorry about the crappy formating -- just keep track of the columns) Kerry, Bush, Tie Among Democrats 81%, 5, 11 Among Republicans 12%, 73, 11 Among Independents ...

Here's the description After another volley of rhetoric and statistics from both sides of the stage, Sen. John Kerry walked away as the clear winner of the final debate according to a flash poll conducted immediately after closing statements by the candidates. According to the Gallup organization as reported by CNN, Kerry won the debate with 52% while only 39% felt that George Bush had the better night. Still searching for more results...

Here are early poll results : A CBS News poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate named Kerry the winner by 39-25 percent over Mr. Bush, with 36 percent calling it a tie. Fifty-nine percent said Kerry has clear positions on the issues. Before the third debate, only 29 percent of the same voters said Kerry had clear positions. I'll keep looking for other data.

That's not good for Kerry. We'll see if that become a story.

There are two ways to talk about who won the debate: One is to talk about how you would have scored the debate were you a judge. The second is to talk about how viewers and -- once the spin gets going -- non-viewer voters see the debate. I'm always more interested in how the debates will be interpreted by the viewers and other voters. Personally, I've thought every debate other than the first was a draw. That's a copout, I know, but I think the candidates have performed well except for...

Hey, is it my imagination, or did Bush focus on foreign policy in his closing statements? Wasn't this the domestic policy debate?

And did Kerry say he hadn't? Does anyone know?

I don't mean that in a biased fashion. Bush is coming off well because he's energetic and aggressive. Kerry is performing very similarly to how he has in the previous debate. He's less energetic, but he speaks calmly in a measured voice, and he knows his facts. I've generally assumed one reason poll respondents like Kerry in debates, is that he sounds presidential. I think he's doing that tonight, but Bush's game is on, and I know lots of viewers like that. So, what do viewers like...

Bush looks less angry, and more comfortable than in the last debate. Worlds better than he did in the first. The initial take will probably be that it's a draw. My guess is that overnight polls will show that. Both Democrats and Republicans will think their candidate won, and the number of undecideds has been decreasing for at least a couple of weeks. Conservatives are going to love Bush's performance, and it may boost their turnout. They may have been demoralized, and Bush's stro...

From the polling I've seen on the second debate, men respond well to Bush's willingness to attack, but women are turned off by it